Infrastructure construction, Banking, and Technology are industry groups that are expected to greatly greatly greatly benefit from positive macroeconomic support policies in 2024.
In 2024, the stock market will generally be more positive and be a pivotal year for the economy’s recovery, but there will still be many unpredictable risks. Therefore, investors should prioritize focusing on the individual stories of stock groups to optimize profits.
Infrastructure construction – A big driving force for economic growth
Many studies have shown that, for developing economies like Vietnam, promoting disbursement of investment in infrastructure and energy projects will be much more effective than other economies. economic development. Promoting infrastructure development will create conditions for private capital to expand in the long term, which is the most effective source of capital for economic growth.
Regarding the disbursement plan for public investment capital, the total state budget investment plan for 2024 is 723 trillion VND, an increase of 1.6% compared to the 2023 plan, of which the infrastructure sector is up to 363 thousand billion VND. billion VND accounting for 50.5%.
With the legal bottlenecks related to disbursement and implementation of public investment projects having been partly removed, the motivation for the construction and public investment group in 2024 is huge.
In addition to the 12 projects of the North – South Expressway phase 2 with a total investment of 148,492 billion VND that have been started in early 2023, 3 special projects are highly expected at the present time including: Main items of the airport Long Thanh; Belt 3 City. Ho Chi Minh and Belt 4 City. Hanoi. These key projects will be the main growth driver for the public investment industry in the period 2023-2027, ensuring an abundant amount of work for participating businesses.
Infrastructure construction is an industry that directly benefits from the investment promotion process: public investment projects are all large-scale projects, requiring high technology and progress. However, the number of businesses and joint ventures capable of meeting the above requirements is still limited.
Therefore, many businesses and joint ventures continuously win important project packages, creating breakthroughs in revenue and profit expectations.
The market also witnessed a clear concentration of cash flow since 12 North-South expressway projects found contractors. Stocks receiving attention in this industry group are HHV, VCG, C4G.
The bank is steadfast in overcoming difficulties
The credit growth of commercial banks in 2024 is expected to be more positive when loan demand recovers when interest rates become attractive again, especially in the retail and small and medium enterprise segments (SME), while the real estate market shows signs of being vibrant again in the second half of 2024 with support from the state in actively resolving legal problems.
It is forecasted that the net interest income ratio (NIM) of banks may increase slightly in 2024 when capital costs decrease thanks to cooling deposit interest rates and tightening deposit interest rate policies of the State Bank. The potential for NIM expansion will belong to commercial banks with a high ability to attract retail and CASA customers, such as MBB, TCB, TPB, etc.
Regarding asset quality, the banking industry is still under a lot of pressure; however, the bright spot is that the group 2 debt ratio has begun to improve. Banks’ asset quality and provisioning levels are estimated to remain stable in the first half of 2024 as circulars and policies to support the industry remain in effect and customers return to repay debt when spending pressure is on. Loan interest costs are reduced.
However, the asset quality of banks is assessed to be differentiated after Circular No. 02/2023/TT-NHNN expires at the end of the second quarter of 2024, and the bad debt ratio of the entire industry will increase rapidly as debt increases. restructured to maturity.
Banks with good asset quality and large risk buffers, such as TCB, ACB, VCB, BID, STB, etc., will record bad debt and restructure debt at a moderate level, as well as have plenty of room to handle.
Banking groups with a high proportion of corporate credit and small risk buffers may face bad debt risks and increased provisioning pressure in 2024–2025.
Technology and AI
The rapid advancement in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and data analytics continues to drive growth in the tech sector. This includes everything from AI-driven healthcare innovations to advancements in autonomous vehicles and smart technologies.
Few sectors that were poised for significant growth or transformation:
Renewable Energy and Sustainability: As the world increasingly focuses on combating climate change, industries related to renewable energy sources (solar, wind, hydroelectric power) and sustainability initiatives are expected to grow. This also includes electric vehicles and battery technology.
Healthcare and Biotechnology: The healthcare sector, especially biotech and telehealth, is expanding due to technological innovations and an aging global population. The ongoing need for medical advancements, including personalized medicine and new vaccine technologies, is driving growth.
E-commerce and Digital Services: The shift towards online shopping and digital services has been accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, and this trend is expected to continue. This includes growth in digital payment platforms, online retail, and remote work technologies.
Cybersecurity: With the increasing digitization of services and the prevalence of remote work, the demand for cybersecurity solutions to protect data and systems from cyber threats is higher than ever.
Entertainment and Media: Streaming services, online gaming, and digital content creation are sectors that have seen significant growth, driven by changing consumer behaviors and the increasing accessibility of high-speed internet.
Space Exploration and Satellite Technology: Companies focused on space exploration, satellite technology, and related telecommunications services are gaining attention, driven by both governmental and private investments.
FinTech: Financial technology companies, especially those offering blockchain and cryptocurrency services, peer-to-peer lending, and mobile payments, are disrupting traditional banking and finance industries.
Education Technology (EdTech): The demand for online learning platforms, digital classroom tools, and educational software continues to grow as educators and students seek more flexible, accessible, and personalized learning experiences.
Supply Chain and Logistics Technology: Innovations in supply chain management and logistics, including automation and AI, are critical in addressing the challenges posed by global supply chain disruptions.
These predictions are based on trends observed up to early 2023. For the most current and detailed analysis, examining recent market research reports or economic forecasts can provide up-to-date insights into which industries are expected to be outstanding in 2024.
What do you think?